Before we mercifully turn the page on another disappointing Twins season, it’s time for my annual team MVP ballot.
This time every year, I pick a team MVP and rank the 10 most valuable Twins, with notes on how I came to rank each player. Despite the team’s struggles, the Twins actually had no shortage of good individual performances, which makes their collective inability to stay healthy and avoid a second-half collapse all the more frustrating.
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Let’s dive into my ballot and then agree to never speak of this season again.
(You’ll have a chance to cast your team MVP vote at the end of the article.)
1. Carlos Correa, SS
Carlos Correa produced exactly as expected for the Twins, hitting .291 with an .834 OPS after batting .277 with an .837 OPS in seven seasons for the Astros. And because offense was down across the league this year, those similar-looking raw numbers were good for a 140 OPS+ that’s the second-best of his career and solidly above his lifetime 127 OPS+ for Houston.
Correa led all MLB shortstops in OPS and OPS+, setting the Twins record for shortstops in both. He was third among MLB shortstops with 5.4 Wins Above Replacement, a mark surpassed by only two shortstops in Twins history, Zoilo Versalles in 1965 and Roy Smalley in 1978. And he was worth his $35.1 million salary and then some, as 5.4 WAR carries a standard valuation of $43.2 million.
So why did it seem like Correa’s overall impact was good rather than great, and less than those elite numbers would suggest? Because he wasn’t his usual self in the biggest, game-changing moments, slugging just .369 in high-leverage spots and .366 with runners in scoring position. Correa lacked signature moments, so the impact of his otherwise great season was less than the sum of its parts.
Correa was spectacular down the stretch, hitting .340 with a .957 OPS over his final 50 games, but even that was muted by the injury-wrecked roster collapsing around him. He tried to carry the Twins to the playoffs with a great September, but by that point they were too big of a mess to be carried. And that’s the real shame of Correa’s first and perhaps only season in Minnesota.
Carlos Correa delivers late in the 8th to give the Twins the lead 💪
🎥 @BallySportsNOR | @Twins pic.twitter.com/lW4hkgAAt6
— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) September 9, 2022
2. Jhoan Duran, RP
Jhoan Duran had a 1.86 ERA and 89-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 67 2/3 innings, and his impact was even greater than those amazing numbers because nearly all of his work came in high-leverage spots and he single-handedly kept the Twins’ mess of a bullpen from imploding. Rarely does a reliever have a legit case for any team’s MVP, but Duran was in rarefied air as a rookie.
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Duran led AL relievers with +4.6 Win Probability Added, the second-most by any rookie reliever since 1990, trailing only Jonathan Papelbon in 2006. During that time, Joe Nathan is the only Twins reliever, rookie or otherwise, to produce a higher WPA. As a whole, the Twins’ bullpen ranked average-ish in WPA, but without Duran they would have placed 25th out of 30 teams.
Duran wasn’t even a reliever until mid-March, when the Twins shifted him to the bullpen following a 2021 season in the minors marred by injuries. His electric raw stuff rose to another level, as Duran led the AL with a 100.8 mph average fastball and topped 103 mph often. And his curveball was even more dominant, holding opponents to a .120 batting average with a whiff on half of all swings.
It’s scary to imagine how quickly the Twins’ season would have been derailed by their bullpen if not for Duran, who got stronger as the year went on with a 1.05 ERA in the second half. Duran was as great, and as impactful, as a reliever can be, and his unflappable brilliance stood out in a bullpen that set fire to anything it touched. Duran was a revelation and the brightest spot in a dark season.
Another day, another Jhoan Duran speed record…
As @betsyhelfand just pointed out and we confirmed, Duran broke his own record for fastest recorded pitch in Twins history with this 103.8 mph fastball, rounded up to 104 by the TV broadcast: pic.twitter.com/UIMYaEXcjt
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) September 28, 2022
3. Luis Arraez, 1B/2B/DH
Luis Arraez was the Twins’ first-half MVP, batting .338 with an .856 OPS on the way to his first All-Star Game. He was absolutely locked in, lining balls all over the field and adjusting to opponents working him inside by pulling pitches with authority, matching his career homer total in July. His switch to first base went relatively smoothly, giving Arraez a place to play every day.
But then some of the singles stopped dropping, some of the well-struck fly balls found gloves and Arraez’s career-long leg problems became an issue again with a hamstring injury. He hit just .289 with an empty .715 OPS in the second half, missing his trademark plate discipline and limping to the finish line to hold off Aaron Judge for the AL batting title at .316.
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It was a hugely successful season for Arraez, who captured his first batting title and set career-highs in games (144), plate appearances (603), hits (173), homers (8), runs scored (88), OPS+ (130) and WAR (4.4), but a mediocre second half left it short of the full-fledged, star-making breakout that seemed to be coming in the first half.
Your 2022 AL Batting Champion, @Arraez_21‼️ pic.twitter.com/Q9UPxnP9ms
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) October 5, 2022
4. Byron Buxton, CF/DH
Byron Buxton was already hurt when he tweaked his knee sliding into second base in Boston on April 15, and it never really got better. Insisting on playing through the injury, Buxton spent hours on the trainer’s table before games, had fluid drained from his knee several times, got a platelet-rich plasma injection at the All-Star break and required frequent days off and time at designated hitter.
It paid off, in the sense that Buxton played the second-most games of his career, hit a career-high 28 homers, started the All-Star Game and produced 4.0 WAR to be worth $32 million compared to his $9 million salary. But it was a constant struggle and ultimately ended in mid-August, as Buxton finally agreed to go on the injured list and never returned, undergoing knee surgery in late September.
There were moments when vintage Buxton appeared, but it took an obvious toll each time. He limped more often than sprinted, stayed down longer than usual after any dive or slide and needed time to compose himself after swings. Yet his 135 OPS+ was second on the team and 15th in the AL, and the Twins played like a 90-win team with Buxton in the lineup and a 65-win team without.
BYRON. BUXTON.
THE #MNTWINS TAKE THE LEAD AFTER HIS MOONSHOT! pic.twitter.com/iDkfMzl33z
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 9, 2022
5. Sonny Gray, SP
Sonny Gray was the Twins’ lone front-line pitching addition last offseason and he produced as expected, posting a 3.08 ERA while missing a half-dozen starts with minor injuries. He was particularly effective in the second half, logging 57 innings with a 2.38 ERA before skipping his final few turns in the rotation with a strained hamstring. And young pitchers often praised his mentorship.
Gray struck out 117 versus just 36 walks and 11 homers in 120 innings, and his 125 ERA+ ranks fourth-best among all Twins pitchers with at least 100 innings in the past 10 seasons. He was far from a workhorse, but Gray was as good on a per-start basis as any pitcher the Twins have had since Johan Santana and they were 14-10 with him on the mound.
6. Joe Ryan, SP
Joe Ryan’s first full season was a success, as he made 27 starts and led the Twins with 147 innings, posting a 3.55 ERA and .211 opponents’ batting average. His unique fastball continued to be far more effective than its low-90s velocity, and his slider made enough strides to be more than just a show-me pitch. He racked up 151 strikeouts versus 47 walks and limited homers better than expected.
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One ugly start in San Diego accounts for one-sixth of Ryan’s runs and a quarter of his homers allowed. In his other 26 outings, Ryan had a 3.04 ERA with only 15 homers surrendered in 142 innings, including a 3.23 ERA in 11 starts after that blowup. He joins José Berríos as the Twins’ only 26-and-under pitchers to start 25 or more games with a better-than-average ERA in the past 10 seasons.
7. Gio Urshela, 3B
One of the Twins’ few healthy and consistently productive players, Gio Urshela appeared in a team-high 144 games and was above average on both sides of the ball, hitting .285/.338/.429 for a 121 OPS+ and making plenty of highlights at third base. He was an ideal Josh Donaldson replacement, out-producing him at the plate for a fraction of the salary and drawing praise for his calm leadership.
Urshela was an above-average hitter for all six months and also had a knack for coming through in big moments, hitting .306/.353/.500 in high-leverage spots, including a pair of walk-off winners. He was one of just five Twins hitters with meaningfully positive WPA, and he also ranked among their top five in WAR. Urshela was the epitome of a good, dependable veteran third baseman.
8. Jorge Polanco, 2B
Last season’s team MVP by a unanimous vote, Jorge Polanco batted just .192 in April, played well for the next three months and then missed the final six weeks with a knee injury. It was a disappointing season, including a career-worst .235 batting average and the first two injured list stints of his career, but Polanco still managed to be more valuable than it may appear at first glance.
Polanco’s on-base percentage remained strong at .348 thanks to a career-best 64 walks in just 104 games, and his .751 OPS was solidly above the league average .701 in a down year for offense, good for a 117 OPS+ that’s an exact match for his OPS+ in the previous three seasons. Polanco also did his best work in high-leverage situations, batting .261/.329/.493 and leading Twins hitters in WPA.
9. Caleb Thielbar, RP
Elevated to a more prominent bullpen role after the last-minute Taylor Rogers trade, Caleb Thielbar stumbled out of the gates with a hideous April and then emerged as the Twins’ second-best reliever, posting a 2.38 ERA and 72-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 innings after May 1. Not captured in those stats is his ability to put out fires for other pitchers, which had a huge impact.
Thielbar was constantly brought into sticky mid-inning situations with runners on base and wriggled out of them, saving the Twins and the pitchers he replaced. He inherited 43 runners, third-most in MLB, and stranded 81 percent of them compared to the league average 68 percent. He neutralized lefties and righties, and was fourth among Twins pitchers in WPA behind Duran, Gray and Ryan.
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10. Jose Miranda, 1B/3B
Nick Gordon and Griffin Jax both have compelling cases for the final spot, but Jose Miranda narrowly gets the nod based on how he rescued the Twins’ lineup after injuries wiped out Miguel Sanó, Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis. Miranda debuted on May 2 and struggled, got demoted back to the minors for less than 24 hours and was one of the Twins’ best hitters for the rest of the season.
Miranda hit .292/.349/.458 with 14 homers and 23 doubles in 111 games after May 20, and he led the Twins in RBIs for the season despite driving in a total of just five runs in their first 45 games. His defense was very shaky at times, but Miranda had a higher OPS than every Twins hitter except Correa over the final two-thirds of the season and his ability to play every day proved crucial.
Click here to cast your vote for the Twins MVP if you’re on a mobile device.
(Photo of Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez: Bailey Hillesheim / Icon Sportswire via AP Images)
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